As I write this blog I'm sat in a queue at Eurotunnel with one convoy of England/Wales football supporters and another of saloon racing cars. Two independent sets of British sports people enjoying freedom of movement into the EU for the purpose of pursuing their sporting passion. Un 23 June 2016 that freedom could begin to come to an end.

How could brexit change their lives?

Well there are essentially two Brexit possibilities:

1. Leave on the Norway model – maintaining membership European Economic Area (EEA) by re-joining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), thus retaining access to the EU internal market.

1. Leave on the Russia model – abandoning the EU internal market and pursuing other economic alliances on a bilateral country-by-country basis.

The essential difference between the two potential leave outcomes is to do with 'free movement'. The Norway scenario necessarily maintains 'free movement' and the Russia scenario does not.

Anyone thinking that access to the internal market is possible whilst ending free movement is mistaken – that would create competitive advantage thus distorting the internal market in contravention of fundamental EU principles. Also free movement is all or nothing – there's no half way house.

The Norway scenario will in practice have little tangible effect except in agriculture and fishing because they are areas not covered by the EEA. So for sports people, organisations and businesses, very little would change in practice.

Brits would be able to live, work, compete and travel within the EU and businesses and organisations would have unimpeded access to the market. All the present reciprocal arrangements in terms of emergency healthcare and so on would, for the most part, remain in place.

However because EU law would not apply directly to UK subjects and organisations the UK would need to enact legislation to mirror EU law. This would be part of the EFTA/EEA agreement for UK membership.

In respect of sport I have suggested that this might entail a specific Sport Act designed to reflect the competences enshrined in EU law along with the more general provisions for State aid and free movement compliance. The 'Lisbon Treaty and EU Sports Policy' 2010 is a good guide to what might be necessary covering areas such as 'fairness' and 'openness' in the context of free movement and competition, collective sale of sports rights, the promotion of local training of athletes, solidarity arrangements, status of competitors, anti-doping provisions, national representation, licensing, financial fair play, salary capping, agency, gambling, club ownership, the physical & moral integrity of sports persons and so on.

A Sport Act would also have to look forward in considering priorities for sports policy, priorities regarding the impact of other EU law and policies on sport and priorities for the horizontal development of EU sport policy.

A Sport Act is not necessary if the referendum reaches a conclusion to remain in the EU because the Lisbon Treaty which contains these provisions already applies. However I would argue that a UK Sport Act is in any case desirable mirroring EU law and at the same time introducing UK specific provisions in addition.

The Russia scenario encompasses the abolition of free movement and that in turn means that there will be no access to the EU internal market. This is the outcome which may have serious consequences for the sporting community.

My convoys of football supporters and car-racing enthusiasts would be immediately affected. The cars would be subject to import restrictions, the advertising on them may be controlled at the border, ownership documents will be necessary and all of the individuals may be subject to visa restrictions. Those visa restrictions may control the activities in which individuals may partake – a tourist visa may restrict professional racing for example with consequent implications for competition organisers who may need to discriminate between UK and EU competitors.

As things stand reciprocal arrangements apply throughout the EU however these will cease and thus individuals will no longer have automatic rights to any beneficial arrangements which may apply in the UK, ranging from emergency healthcare to welfare and pension arrangements. For example, this will mean that healthcare in case of sporting injury for Brits in the EU will need to be paid for on demand or by bespoke insurance.

The right for UK subjects to reside in Europe will cease and the right to employment within European sports organisations, associations, commercial companies and so on may be subject to work permits, visa restrictions and quotas.

For example a British footballer seeking to join a European football club may find him or herself subject to a work permit restriction. By the same token English football clubs may find it impossible to employ some European footballers because they cannot obtain work permits.

The free movement of sporting goods across borders will be restricted and restrictions will apply to both goods for sale and for personal use which may affect equipment used in competition. Some sporting goods might be subject to import and export controls, tariffs and duties with consequent administration costs.

The free movement of capital will also cease which will limit the ability of individuals, organisations and commercial companies to move capital into the EU to support their ventures.

In this way access to the EU internal market for the sale of UK produced sports goods and services will be affected as will the opportunity to buy EU produced sports goods and services.

From an overall British sports perspective Brexit will reduce competitiveness. This reduction will be many faceted with administrative obstacles to travel for competition, higher costs of equipment, lower investment in sports facilities, less funding from taxation to support sports enterprise, diminution in sport research and development, additional administrative burdens on associations conforming to new domestic law whilst observing international federation rules and so on.

In writing this series of blogs I've avoided putting the case either way and I've tried to set out the main consequences and complexities. My own view, however, is that in voting for Brexit the UK will compromise its ability to compete at the highest level. Over time this will take Team GB from the podium and put into the 'also ran' category and I think that would be a great shame.

Steve Lawrence is an English architect and co-founder of a football data analytics and spatial development consultancy with clients including AFC Ajax, Amsterdam and Cruyff Football, Barcelona.