With the historic vote on the Scottish Referendum on independence only a day away we know one thing: that whatever the outcome politically the UK will never be the same again. While the impact of a 'no' vote is likely to have little impact on sport in the longer term, divining the likely consequences to sport from a 'yes' vote is not easy. As like most other issues in the debate, any divorce will be a messy business, especially when one party has, so far refused, to accept the situation and look to the future without the other.

The big headlines in the sports sector have been about Scotland not being able to compete at the Rio Olympics and the UK medal count without Scottish athletes. The overriding tone of the debate has been warning of uncertainty for Scottish athletes—will they be able to compete in the next Olympic Games for Scotland? Who will fund their training and will Scottish facilities meet their requirements? These questions will leave patriotic Scottish athletes with a difficult decision on choosing whether to represent Scotland or the future Great Britain, should there be a 'yes' vote. Sport is much more than this however, and as well as examining what has been said about sport and the separate impact on Scottish sport with that on the rest of the UK, it is important to assess this across elite, professional and community sport and what is the likely fall-out to the sector on both sides of the border?

Community Sport

Community sport, including school sport, is of course already a devolved issue. Sport Scotland is responsible for implementing its policy, under the direction of the Scottish Parliament. Its goals are, "…to support community-led approaches to develop… environments for sport and active recreation… to provide leadership for club development that increases the capacity and capability of more clubs and community sports associations".[1] Sport Scotland, Sport Wales Sport Northern Ireland and Sport England each has their own independent aims to further community sport that are funded by the relevant Parliament.

Where issues will arise is over the National Lottery funding of good causes, including sport. Can Scotland expect for this money to continue? While the Scottish Government's White Paper on independence promised the Lottery would continue to operate north of the Border after separation and Scotland would continue "to receive our fair share of funding" Camelot, which has the licence to run the National Lottery until 2023, has said the final decision "would be a matter for the respective governments". In other words yet another negotiation that will need to be hammered out by the respective administrations. Alistair Darling has already warned good causes north of the Border only get the funding "because we are part of the UK" and that the situation would "fundamentally change" if there was a vote for separation. In this case, Scotland would have to set up its own national lottery to fund community and elite sport.

It is worth notingthat Sport Scotland sets out no overt or specific goals about health outcomes. In terms of the wider health agenda, Scotland has highest prevalence of adult obesity in the UK according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) statistics. Levels of overweight children are similar to the figures for England. In the Active Healthy Kids Scotland Report Card (www.activehealthykidsscotland.co.uk) Scotland scores poorly on obesity, sedentary behaviour, diet and physical activity levels, though strongly on national policy, strategy and investment as well as community and the built environment. This suggests there is a good foundation from which to build and integrate future policies into a strategy for sport and physical activity as a means to improve the health of the population. It seems to be the case that Scotland is experiencing the same physical activity issues as the rest of the UK, but independence will offer them better opportunities to choose how to deal with them.

Of course what is unpredictable is an independent Scotland's ability to maintain current revenues. If there are pressures on the Exchequer, it can be assumed that any community sport budget would be under threat against other pressing issues such as welfare and the NHS.

Professional Sport

As with community sport, professional sport in Scotland is already independent – Scottish athletes play football, cricket and golf as a separate nation so we can expect little change here on either side of the border. In fact full independence might help it in some quarters, for example, its position within FIFA. The four home nations anachronistic rights to play as separate countries remain, but not without criticism. A vote for independence would surely secure Scotland's position. Professor Stefan Szymanski of Birkbeck University and the Michigan Center for Sport Management suggests that this may come at the cost of Great Britain's seats for Wales and Northern Ireland, reducing the total number of seats on International Football Association Board (IFAB) from four to two. Professor Szymanski goes further, arguing Scottish independence will see increased pressure from FIFA for merging the English, Welsh and Northern Irish national teams to form a single, Great Britain team.

Major events

It has often been said that Scotland has continued to hold an unfair advantage on attracting sporting events. Whilst it maybe hasn't the facilities or finance that England or the UK can secure the largest of sporting events, it has in Sport Scotland a well-oiled machine that works together with Visit Scotland to support, fund and bid for sport events. In the current UK Sport Gold Event series schedule, 6 out of 15 Gold Event bids won in the UK have gone to Scotland—with 1 live bid to be decided and 8 upcoming bids being considered—of which Scotland would become excluded in the event of independence. The question remains: would future high-profile events become harder for an independent Scotland to support, fund and generate sponsorship for? Recent history would say 'no' and we may even see a Scottish Grand Prix in the years ahead. But the reality of the long-term financial pressures of an independent Government and making up the shortfall in exposure and the associated 'soft power', which comes with hosting top-class events, is likely to be a huge challenge for an independent Scotland in the years ahead. Of course for England, independence may actually mean that it could take the opportunity to refocus its strategic work, with Sport England, whatever is left of UK Sport and Visit England working to better concentrate, support and fund bids for sporting events.

Elite Sport

The most serious impact of a 'yes' vote is on elite sport. UK Sport is the body responsible for our elite athletes who must compete nationally, as the United Kingdom. These are the sports broadly known as the 'Olympic' sports. So what is the reality of a fully independent Scotland on elite sport? Team GB would lose its Scottish athletes and Scotland will have to set up its own organisation to train, develop and support them throughout their careers. With the loss of the second strongest of the 4 home nations and only Wales and Northern Ireland remaining there is a real question as to whether UK Sport would remain a viable organisation. This would perhaps leave it ripe to finally achieve a hitherto unsatisfied desire by policy-makers and merge it with Sport England, thus saving the Exchequer much-needed money.

For many the break-up of Team GB would make logical sense for British sport – Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England competing as independent nations with strong cultural and sporting traditions. While this maybe further down the line, in the immediate future athletes will have to decide who to compete for, as do many modern day professional sports people. Where you are born remains an important criteria to determine who you represent, although in our ever-changing global sports market-place, athletes often seem to be able to find ways to represent countries in which they find the best facilities, coaches and teams. In any case, the IOC will have a role here, as it still holds the final decision as to who can represent which country at Olympic Games.

Which country a sportsperson competes for goes to the heart of the independence debate. With all the arguments of whether Scotland will be better off or not, the decision ultimately is one of identity: who do the people of Scotland want to be governed by? Sport, at its most fundamental is about identity, heritage, and nationhood. Scotland already has a strong and proud independent sporting tradition. Officially adding elite athletes to this will only embed what athletes and politicians have felt for years: that an athlete's birthplace within the Union provides their most significant identity. You only have to look at the early years of Andy Murray to see who he felt the closest affinity with, further mirrored by Alex Salmond's when he attended Andy Murray's Wimbledon victory in 2013. And for this reason, sport is likely to be placed at the centre of any new independent Scotland as it seeks ways to build stronger national identity, to forge a new culture and traditions that are not part of that shared history. Yet how will sport fans, other competitors and countries deal with Scottish athletes suddenly competing for Scotland? What would this to do to the record books commentators and fans love to pour over? The reality is that it's unlikely to cause much of a wave at all. In fact for the rest of the world it might make sport simpler.

Where independence is likely to cause most difficulties, as with the wider Scottish independence debate, is the loss of the benefit of the collective ability, expertise, and resources. The Working Group for Scottish Sport Report and the Scottish Sport Association (SSA) Response document, highlights the need for "additional resource and investment". Achieving an independent sporting infrastructure that matches the potential of Scotland's athletes would be a substantial financial task. Sport and Recreation Alliance Interim Chief Executive Sallie Barker highlighted further questions that would need to be addressed in the event of a 'Yes' vote like: what would happen to elite funding? Would National Lottery funding stop at the border? Would Scottish training camps be the same, or better than those provided at UK level?

This uncertainty is not helped by the fact that the current UK Government's position openly states no preparations or contingencies are being made for Scottish independence. Funding issues would, no doubt, be negotiated as part of the 12,000 or more likely legal agreements (according to a recent BBC documentary) that would be necessary should Scottish people vote for independence and they separate from the UK. Like in many other aspects of the current debate, Scotland would expect its share of the British sporting infrastructure and funding.

This could get nasty, and Scotland is perhaps, not as well prepared for independence as it may hope. The SSA sets an optimistic tone over future training camps and facilities for elite athletes;

"It is recognised that recent investment in Scottish sporting facilities leaves Scotland well positioned in relation to elite sporting facilities for a number of sports, but not all. Consideration would need to be given as to whether Scotland needs to develop certain specialised facilities or have guaranteed access to those of another nation."

Currently, of 19 UK Sport Elite Training Centres (ETCs), only 1 is in Scotland – curling (according to a recent UK Sport ETC map). Would Scotland expect the British Government to build it new elite sport facilities for it as part of the negotiated settlement? Would UK Sport be willing to share its expertise, technological advancements and elite facilities to a rival nation? Would Scottish-British athletes accept a potential significant lowering of facilities and support that the reality an independent Scotland would initially create?

In the SSA's view, "…all of these are achievable with appropriate resources to support this" (italics added). Additional sport provision costs to a newly independent Scottish administration would be supported by existing infrastructure up to Commonwealth Games level – plus new Commonwealth Games legacy facilities e.g. the refurbished National Sports Centre in Inverclyde and the existing National Performance Centre for Sport in Edinburgh. Facilities are key, as Scottish athletes training in the UK would be regarded as foreign and as competitors, unlikely to be invited to train in English or UK training centres. Indeed, given the importance of top-class facilities, Scottish athletes may be influenced to choose to continue to represent Team GB instead of Team Scotland in the event of the nation separating from the rest of the UK. There would be additionally higher costs for team sports and Scottish athletes training abroad through UK Sport funding.

The potential damage could take decades for an independent Scotland to repair and, potentially it may never return to the levels of success it enjoyed as a part of the Britain. Although this may not matter in the long term as being independent maybe more important to the Scottish people than maintaining the high-level of sporting success it has shared in the Union.

Of more immediate concern is that equally credible voices are arguing about the impact on Olympic membership: Some warning bureaucracy could leave Scotland in the wilderness and unable to compete as a nation in 2016, others, like the Working Group for Scottish Sport argue there will be, "…no obvious or major barrier to securing Olympic and Paralympic accreditation… in time to compete in Rio 2016." Whatever the case, the fact remains that establishment of a National Olympic Committee would require a number of significant subsidiary actions, for example: developing an anti-doping structure and policy; developing a framework for coaching; developing capacity within Scottish Governing Bodies of sport etc.; all of which infrastructure is currently housed as a part of the UK set-up.

The implications for Team GB are more clear-cut. Scottish athletes made up 10.6% (55 out of 541) of Team GB (as well as 9% of Paralympic Team GB) at the London 2012 Olympics, a representation in excess of their proportional UK population, winning 20% of the medals. Without these medals, Team GB would have slipped one place down the medal table into 4^th. While this is not desirable, neither is it a disaster for Team GB.

The benefits seen by the SSA for Scotland as an independent nation are valid, though given the further costs involved, they are more for the long-term. Increased selection opportunities would be a notable boost to sport in an independent Scotland: including more chances for coaches and other staff, increased personnel requirements in sports agencies, greater numbers of necessary referees and officials - however all will come at more cost to the Scottish taxpayer. This encapsulated the take-home message for sport in an independent Scotland: there will be increased opportunities in the long-term but at the price of significant financial investment. Therefore much hinges on the wider economic settlement from a negotiated independence. As for the rest of the UK, it would lose some great athletes and a talent pool of 5.5 million on which to draw the next generation of Olympians for Team GB.

There are certainly some major challenges for sport in an independent Scotland: the true extent of these will only be known in the negotiated settlement. While Scotland risks losing its ability to field world class athletes that compete on the international stage, as much of their professional sports teams have done, through a lack of the resources and funding to train and maintain them. Yet in doing so they will finally bring all sport into line under the Scottish banner and begin a journey for a new identity as a single nation. Of course the rest of the UK will suffer: not only the lost of their exceptional athletes but their passion and commitment to being a part of the Union. This will break our collective identity and pride in Team GB, meaning we also will have to begin a journey establishing our new identity.

Luke Regan and Mark Balcar

[1] Developing and supporting a world class sporting system: sportscotland corporate plan 2011-2015